Fantasy Baseball 101: Taking the Rookie Risk

My friend, Archie, recently posted on his website that the highly anticipated rookie Delmon Young will start this season in the minor leagues. (http://bosl.blogspot.com/2006/03/rooked.html) He then poses the question: Is the "sure-fire prospect" worth a roster spot even if he will start in the minors, or do you use that bench position for a player who can impact your team today?

It's a tough question: How much is that rookie worth? You rarely can tell even from reading what all the sports writers pontificate about any particular freshman player. No matter how they did in the minors, college or high school, there is no predicting the success of a rookie ball player.

So how do you answer the question? There are lots of factors. First, decide if this rookie is a guaranteed performer, baseball prodigy and future hall of famer or is this new recruit just a sleeper pick with a big upside. How can you tell? That's where the sports writers come in. I can't visit all the spring training camps, or watch any of the winter ball played in Latin America (someday maybe...), but I can read about it. If everyone is talking about them, chances are that they will make a big splash; consider them the "sure-fire prospect". If you only read news on a particular player only on seldom occasions, or if that player is stuck in the system behind another super-star (like Andy Marte waiting for Chipper Jones to kick it the past few years in Atlanta), that player is a greater risk and is best considered a sleeper.

Another factor is the kind of league that you play in. If you play in a league where you draft an entirely new team every year, future hall of famers do you little or no good if they are not yet playing in the major leagues. However, if yours is a keeper squad it might be worth the risk to spend (and maybe waste) a roster spot to stash away that star in the making.

Beware of the hype surrounding any rookie. It is easy to get sucked in by the likes of Mike MacDougal (fireballer who started out strong in Kansas City, but who burned out quickly), Nick Johnson (touted by the Yankee farm system as the next Babe Ruth, never saw that potential due to limitations caused by his injury prone body), or even Jeremy Reed (who was supposed to revolutionize Seattle baseball last year but ended up striking out once every seven plate appearances and struggled to break a .250 average). Catcher prospects rarely fulfill their pre-season hype. Last year, JD Closser and John Buck broke into the majors last year with high expectations but both had great difficulties adjusting to the workload of a major league season. Closser's confidence has been so negatively affected by his rookie season that he is no longer the starting catcher in Colorado.

There are some players for whom the hype is reality. Albert Pujols, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Alfonso Soriano are all the kinds of players that you read a lot about before they even played their first major league game. The day they arrived they made an immediate impact to their teams, and everyone expected them to. Even Johnny Estrada, who worked his way through the Philadelphia farm system and spent two years with the Phillies before being traded to the Atlanta Braves, turned out to be as good as expected. The Braves knew all about this guy, traded star pitcher Kevin Millwood for him and he didn't disappoint. In his first full year with Atlanta he played in 134 games and hit .314 -- he was chosen to the National League All Star team that year.

With all that swimming around in your head, as you read the news and updates about your potential super-stud, read between the lines. Delmon Young is practically the second coming of Dave Winfield, but why is he not going to start in the majors this year? What is it that we are not being told? Although all the prevailing wisdom is telling us to hold on to this kid, that he will be worth the wait, do so with a nod to the risk you are taking by locking up that roster spot on your fantasy team with a player who will not generate any stats for you.

I think that in this case he is worth the risk. In my opinion, it is a good move to make if you can afford the roster slot, you are in a keeper league, and if you don't have any other players you are taking the same risk on.

Other rookies that are worth taking a look at:
Jeremy Hermida (home run power and speed)
Ryan Zimmerman (a lot of talk, not much proof yet)
Francisco Lirano (touted as the next Johan Santana)
Prince Fielder (bigger than his Daddy, hits farther too)
Matt Cain (great ERA and WHIP projected)
Matt Murton (a bit of a sleeper, if he can hit consistently)
J. Gathright (speedy outfielder, could hit for power)
Kenji Johjima (another Japan pro turns MLB rookie)
Josh Barfield (will he be better than his Daddy?)
Joey Devine (Closer of the future for the Braves)
Boof Bonser (wasn't he the tough guy in Teen Wolf?)
Eric Duncan (first baseman of the future for the Yankees)
Josh Willingham (not a strong catcher, might play LF to keep his bat in lineup)
Justin Verlander (Detriot fireballer had rough 2005, but could be a star)
Ian Kinsler (a good hitter in a hitter's park. nice.)

The risk is high with any rookie on draft day. It is unusual that their freshman year is anything superb. Even for Rookie of the Year candidates, a lot of talk is spent on how much potential they have. That being said, i still have a hard time staying away from the allure of the rookie phenom. I am a sucker for a good story, and lots of rookies have that "story". I believe that for all the risks, it is the successful rookie pick that can make or break your fantasy team. I believe that the winner at the end of the season will not only have a team made up of seasoned veterans, but also of several very good rookies who turn out to be better than the middle of the road journeymen usually available on the waiver wire.

Last year I was successful with a team that picked up Huston Street and drafted David Wright. But I had also taken Draft Day chances on JD Closser and Jeremy Reed, neither or who stayed on my roster for very long. Archie, in the same league last year picked Clint Barmes and Dallas McPherson on Draft Day. If either stayed healthy, they would have been stand out picks. Barmes will get another chance to start this year. McPherson is all but done.

So to answer the question: "to take a chance on Delmon Young or let him go," I would take the chance in a keeper league, and let him go if it's not. DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not indicative of future results.